Fantasy baseball pitcher rankings, lineup advice for Sunday's MLB games
Everything you need to know to place your MLB bets and set your fantasy baseball lineups for Sunday, June 1.
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A resolution in the alleged free agent tampering cases of the Falcons and Eagles is likely to come this week, league sources told ESPN's Adam Schefter.
Fantasy baseball forecaster: Team hitting ratings
Stay ahead of the game and optimize your fantasy baseball hitters with our forecaster, which provides a rolling 10-day outlook of every team's hitting matchups as well as the potential for stolen bases.
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Look for our fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings, hitter upgrades and downgrades daily to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions and for MLB betting tips. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET, and fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.
Note: This file has been updated with overnight pitching changes and weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.
What is that Snell?
The elongated free agency aside, SP Blake Snell was an enigma during draft season. He was coming off winning the NL Cy Young. Using outcomes, he certainly deserved the award. However, the underlying metrics suggested he tag-teamed with Lady Luck for most of the season. Snell benefited from a .256 BABIP and 86.7% left-on-base mark. Both of those were driven by an 83rd percentile Hard-Hit%. Snell's 31.5% strikeout rate was 94th percentile, but his 13.3% walk rate was just 4th percentile, and highest ever for a Cy Young winner.
Research indicates that a pitcher has a limited influence on his Hard-Hit%. Last season, Snell consistently located in zones conducive to generating soft contact, so from that perspective, the low Hard-Hit% was warranted, and not good fortune. That said, it's hard to fathom how a pitcher with such poor control can flip the switch and command his pitches to this area. Further, if this was by design, it's essentially a skill. As such, the southpaw should have been expected to maintain the ability this season.
The catch is, even those adept at analyzing pitching didn't expect Snell to repeat last season's exploits. If that's the case, maybe the luck aspect wasn't the low Hard-Hit%, but rather the extended period Snell was able to have his pitches land in the zones resulting in softer contact.
Unfortunately, circumstances have delayed learning the answer. Snell's dawdling signing and subsequent late start to the season cast a shroud over his early performances. The subsequent Grade 2 adductor strain costing Snell over a month further clouds matters.
In two starts since coming off the injured list, Snell has been pitch inefficient. He tossed 87 and 90 pitches, but logged only 3⅓ and four innings, respectively. The lefty fanned 12 but walked six over those 7⅓ frames. He's giving up harder contact, though his .480 BABIP is higher than expected when factoring in the elevated average exit velocity and Hard-Hit%.
Snell deserves the benefit of the doubt, so he should be considered a work in progress. In fantasy terms, he's someone to hold in reserve. Only those who live dangerously should have Snell active against the New York Yankees on Sunday. His next start lines up in Arlington, another tough matchup, but after that the schedule gets easier. The Giants-Yankees tilt comprises one of the standard 15-game Sunday ledger. Action commences at 1:05 p.m. ET with the Houston Astros hosting the Minnesota Twins, then culminates with the Philadelphia Phillies entertaining the St. Louis Cardinals in the ESPN Sunday night affair.
What you may have missed on Saturday
The Philadelphia Phillies had to go to the bullpen early yesterday after SP Ranger Suarez was hit in the left hand by a 106.1 MPH line drive, courtesy of St. Louis Cardinals OF Alec Burleson. Suarez retrieved the ball and lobbed it to first, recording the final out of the second inning but he was unable to come out for the third. X-rays revealed no break, but Suarez's left thumb is swollen, rendering him questionable for his next start. Five Phillies relievers covered the final seven frames, with RP Spencer Turnbull fanning six over three innings to pick up the win in the 6-1 victory. If Suarez can't make his next start, Turnbull is the likely substitute.
The Toronto Blue Jays placed RP Jordan Romano on the 15-day IL with elbow inflammation. With struggling RP Erik Swanson trying to get back on track with Triple-A Buffalo, RP Yimi Garcia is in line for the bulk of the Blue Jays' saves, with RP Chad Green in the mix.
Middle infield has been a revolving door for the Boston Red Sox all season. Their woes continued yesterday with 2B Vaughn Grissom landing on the 10-day IL with a mild hamstring strain. In addition, backup 2B Romy Gonzalez was also placed on the 10-day IL with a strained left hamstring. The Red Sox called up INF Jamie Westbrook from Triple-A Worcester to serve as depth while 2B Emmanuel River and SS David Hamilton cover the middle. The club hopes to have OF Tyler O'Neill back early this week, freeing up Rafaela to help as well.
In the top half of the third inning, Chicago White Sox OF Andrew Benintendi took Milwaukee Brewers SP Robert Gasser deep. In the bottom half, Benintendi had to exit the contest with left Achilles tendinitis. He's questionable today when the White Sox try to avoid the sweep. If Benintendi can't play, OF Dominic Fletcher is the likely replacement.
Washington Nationals SS CJ Abrams was a late scratch on Saturday. He hurt his shoulder after diving for a ball on Friday night. Abrams status for today's interleague affair with the Cleveland Indians is unclear. The Nationals lost the first two games of the series. Today they'll face SP Carlos Carrasco who will be activated from the IP to make the start.
Everything else you need to know for Sunday
The top-ranked streaming option is Arizona Diamondbacks SP Brandon Pfaadt (24.1% rostered in ESPN league). Pfaadt will take the hill in Citi Field to face the lineup averaging the third-fewest runs per game in home games. Pfaadt's 4.16 ERA is judged half a run too high by the associated 3.65 xFIP and 3.56 SIERA.
The safest streaming candidate is SP Gavin Stone, who will toe the rubber in Dodgers Stadium for a home date with the Colorado Rockies. Stone is also coming off a gem, tossing seven shutout stanzas against the Mets, with seven punchouts and no free passes. For the season, Stone has only 41 strikeouts in 57 frames, but he's limiting walks and keeping the ball in the yard. The Rockies' lineup is one of the least productive on the road in the league, in part due to an elevated strikeout rate.
Cincinnati Reds SP Nick Lodolo (42.3%) will be making his second start since coming off the injured list after nursing a groin strain. In his return, Lodolo picked up where he left off, yielding just one run in 5⅓ innings against the St. Louis Cardinals in Great American Ballpark. Lodolo has rung up 46 in 40⅓ innings, walking just four while surrendering only four homers. On Sunday, Lodolo has a road date in Wrigley Field against a Chicago Cubs offense with a below-average wOBA and above-average strikeout rate.
Betting Tip of the Day: Something must give. The Kansas City Royals host the San Diego Padres with SP Cole Ragans on the hill. Ragans boasts a 29.7% strikeout rate, the 10th highest among qualified starters. Meanwhile, the Padres 19.0% strikeout rate facing right-handers is the fourth lowest in the league. Ragans averages 7.4 strikeouts per six innings, so accounting for the lineup, I'm going to play it safe by backing the Over on 5.5 strikeouts (-110).
It's not too late to start a free fantasy baseball league. Leagues drafted this week will start scoring fresh the following Monday. Come and join the fun!
Starting pitcher rankings for Sunday
Reliever report
To get the latest information on each team's bullpen hierarchy, as well as which pitchers might be facing a bit of fatigue and who might be the most likely suspects to vulture a save or pick up a surprise hold in their stead, check out the latest Closer Chart, which will be updated every morning.
Hitting report
Plan ahead in fantasy baseball with help from our Forecaster projections. Each day, we will provide an updated preview of the next 10 days for every team, projecting the matchup quality for hitters (overall and by handedness) as well as for base stealers.
Best Sub-50% rostered hitters for Sunday
Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more.
Danny Jansen (TOR, C -- 12%) vs. Quinn Priester
Rhys Hoskins (MIL, 1B -- 35%) vs. Nick Nastrini
Wilyer Abreu (BOS, CF -- 17%) vs. Casey Mize
Brendan Donovan (STL, 2B -- 18%) at Taijuan Walker
Wenceel Perez (DET, 2B -- 4%) at Brayan Bello
Dominic Smith (BOS, 1B -- 0%) vs. Mize
Alec Burleson (STL, LF -- 6%) at Walker
Davis Schneider (TOR, 2B -- 11%) vs. Priester
Keibert Ruiz (WSH, C -- 45%) at Carlos Carrasco
Jackson Merrill (SD, SS -- 28%) at Cole Ragans
Worst Over-50% rostered hitters for Sunday
Elly De La Cruz (CIN, SS -- 99%) at Ben Brown
Ian Happ (CHC, LF -- 65%) vs. Nick Lodolo
Dansby Swanson (CHC, SS -- 61%) vs. Lodolo
Taylor Ward (LAA, LF -- 82%) at Luis Castillo
Brent Rooker (OAK, RF -- 54%) at Charlie Morton
Christopher Morel (CHC, CF -- 63%) vs. Lodolo
Luis Rengifo (LAA, 2B -- 70%) at Castillo
Jeff McNeil (NYM, 2B -- 56%) vs. Brandon Pfaadt
Anthony Volpe (NYY, SS -- 86%) at Blake Snell
Spencer Steer (CIN, 1B -- 95%) at Brown
THE BAT X's Best Stacks for Today
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Austin Gomber
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Nastrini
Atlanta Braves vs. Luis Medina
Jones, Gous' Spectacular Show Hands USA Opening Win
TORONTO -- — Daniel Vogelbach had two hits and two RBI, Chris Bassitt pitched five innings to remain unbeaten in five career starts against Pittsburgh and the Toronto Blue Jays beat the Pirates 5-4 on Sunday.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Davis Schneider each had an RBI and Daulton Varsho scored twice as the Blue Jays took two of three from Pittsburgh.
“The way we’re playing right now is good and there’s always room to get better,” Blue Jays manager John Schneider said.
Bassitt (6-6) allowed three runs and eight hits, extending his winning streak to three starts. He walked one and struck out seven.
The Pirates put at least one runner on base in every inning against Bassitt but the right-hander pitched out of jams, escaping a bases-loaded situation in the second.
“That ended up being the game,” Pirates manager Derek Shelton said. “We left eight guys on in the first (four) innings. We had the ability to capitalize.”
Pittsburgh finished 3 for 16 with runners in scoring position and left 13 runners stranded.
Bassitt is 4-0 with a 2.10 ERA in five career starts against the Pirates.
Chad Green, Trevor Richards and Nate Pearson each pitched one inning of relief. Yimi García pitched around Rowdy Tellez’s two-out RBI single in the ninth for his third save in four chances.
Tellez reached base four times and drove in all four runs, but the Pirates lost for the fourth time in six.
Recalled from Triple-A to face the Blue Jays, Pirates right-hander Quinn Priester (0-5) allowed four runs and eight hits in 4 2/3 innings. Priester walked none and struck out three.
“When I missed my spots, that’s when they were able to capitalize,” Priester said.
Guerrero started at third base for the first time since the final game of his rookie season in 2019. He had made just two appearances at third since then, playing just four innings there.
“It’s not a position change by any means,” Schneider said. “I think it just offers some flexibility.”
Guerrero fielded the only two balls hit his way Sunday, retiring Nick Gonzales for the first out of the seventh and getting pinch hitter Yasmani Grandal to begin the eighth.
“I signed as a third baseman so it is my favorite position,” Guerrero said through an interpreter. “But I’m the kind of player who thinks that if you can play both corners, first and third, the right way, that will give your manager and your team more options.”
Guerrero, who won the AL Gold Glove at first base in 2022, moved to first base in the ninth inning Sunday. Isiah Kiner-Falefa went from second to third.
In a pregame interview with MLB Network Radio, Blue Jays general manager Ross Atkins said Guerrero could make some starts at third in an attempt to add more offense to Toronto’s struggling lineup. The Blue Jays entered play Sunday with the third-fewest runs scored in the AL.
TRAINER’S ROOM
The Pirates opened a roster spot for Priester by putting infielder Alika Williams (right wrist) on the 10-day injured list, retroactive to May 30.
UP NEXT
Pirates: Right-hander Jared Jones (3-5, 3.55 ERA) is expected to start Tuesday as Pittsburgh hosts the Dodgers in the opener of a three-game series. Right-hander Tyler Glasnow (6-3, 3.04) is scheduled for Los Angeles.
Blue Jays: Right-hander Kevin Gausman (4-3, 4.14 ERA) is scheduled to start Monday in the opener of a four-game series against Baltimore. The Orioles had not announced a starter.
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