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Fantasy Hockey Best Picks, Analysis From The 2024 NHL Draft
Another of baseball's top prospects will make his big league debut Monday, as outfielder James Wood had his contract purchased by the Washington Nationals in time for their series against the New York Mets.
Wood will become the eighth member of Kiley McDaniel's top-12 overall prospects from the preseason to reach the majors, and sixth to make his debut during the 2024 season. Yes, it has been another strong year for prospect promotions, though it's some of the less-expected names -- No. 50 Colton Cowser, No. 53 Jared Jones, No. 91 Joey Ortiz and the unranked Luis Gil and Gavin Stone -- who rank among the rookies who have made the biggest impact.
That's not to say that the cream of the prospect crop shouldn't be instantly added -- and Wood certainly falls into that "must add" category based upon his potential. No. 7 overall prospect Paul Skenes has quickly become the NL's Rookie of the Year favorite (-250 odds, as per ESPN BET), and No. 4 Wyatt Langford is still in the running to capture the AL's top freshman honor (+350 odds, second-best). Fantasy managers need to speculate upon the greatest prospective payoffs with their pickups, and Wood, thanks to his power/speed combination, ranks high on that list.
Wood hit.353/.463/.595 with 10 home runs, 37 RBI and 10 stolen bases over 52 games for Triple-A Rochester. His promotion has probably waited this long only because of a hamstring injury that cost him nearly a month (May 24-June 17). Digging into his underlying metrics, Statcast has him with a 59.1% hard-hit rate, the second-best number by any Triple-A hitter with at least 250 balls in play (Trey Cabbage, 59.7%) and a 10.1% barrel rate. Wood has also been successful on 10 out of 11 stolen base attempts this season, and 58 out of 67 during his professional career.
With that combination of raw power and speed, not to mention his size (6-foot-7, 234 pounds), it's no surprise that McDaniel listed Elly De La Cruz, Cody Bellinger and Kyle Tucker as similar player types to Wood. Wood has also made one significant improvement this year that bodes well for his adjustment to the majors, lowering his chase rate (swings at non-strikes) to 25.2%, while also improving his contact rate to 77.9%. Considering he struck out 173 times between two minor league levels in 2023, that's a significant step forward in his development.
Wood is currently available in 76.4% of ESPN leagues and he should be at or near the top of your pickups list for fantasy's Week 15.
How are they still available?Jarred Kelenic, OF, Atlanta Braves (15.6% rostered in ESPN leagues): Injuries to Ronald Acuna Jr. (season-ending ACL surgery) and Michael Harris II (hamstring) have resulted in golden opportunities for the one-time top prospect Kelenic, who has settled in as the team's everyday center fielder and leadoff hitter since Harris got hurt. Kelenic has been excellent in the role, batting .328/.373/.607 with five home runs over the 15 games since, and he's currently sporting his best hard-hit (45.5%) and barrel rates (10.3%). Leading off for a lineup as potent as the Braves means maximum plate appearances and plenty of opportunity to score runs.
Heston Kjerstad, OF, Baltimore Orioles (5.8%): Recalled one week ago to the day, Kjerstad has picked up a trio of starts out of the No. 5 lineup spot, one other batting seventh and Sunday's start out of the eight-hole against a lefty. He has hit .438/.550/.938 with two home runs over his 20 total plate appearances. He has already pushed himself into the team's corner outfield/DH rotation, and has more hitting upside than alternatives such as Austin Hays, Cedric Mullins or Ryan O'Hearn. Batting in the middle of the Orioles order is quite a positive role for run production, so Kjerstad should be universally added.
Mark Vientos, 3B, New York Mets (16.7%): Initially believed to be more of a DH candidate (and therefore an afterthought with J.D. Martinez on the roster), Vientos has instead captured the everyday third-base role following the early-season struggles of Brett Baty. Vientos started 22 of the team's 24 June games at the hot corner, hitting .277/.344/.566 with seven homers and 17 RBIs. True, his 30.9% chase rate is somewhat high, he could stand to get more lift on the ball (53.5% ground ball rate) and he has a bit of a platoon split (118 point wOBA split). However, for now, he's doing enough to warrant universal play in fantasy.
Deeper-league addsJhonkensy Noel, OF, Cleveland Guardians (5.0%): Speaking of players with massive power potential, Noel hit 18 homers while slugging .578 over 65 games for Triple-A Columbus to begin the season, then added two more homers in his first five games since his recall by the Guardians. He also had HR totals of 32 and 27 in the minors in 2022 and 2023, and Statcast had him with a 11.6% barrel rate in Triple-A this year. Noel might shape up as an all-or-nothing power type, but he brings enough potential in that department to warrant a look in AL-only and 15-team mixed leagues.
Landon Knack, SP, Los Angeles Dodgers (7.0%): Here's another player who has capitalized upon an expanded opportunity, moving up from his prior designation of No. 6 starter to being a regular in the Dodgers rotation due to injuries to Walker Buehler and Yoshinobu Yamamoto. Knack has a 2.97 ERA and a 24.3% strikeout rate in his 15 starts (plus one relief appearance) combined between the majors and minors this season, and he's more likely to see greater pitch counts in the coming weeks due to his new expanded role.
Feel free to cutJesus Luzardo (58.8% rostered), Alex Verdugo (61.9%), Jeimer Candelario (26.1%), Yusei Kikuchi (36.7%).
