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Look for our fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings, hitter upgrades and downgrades daily to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions and for MLB betting tips. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET, and fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.
Note: This file will be updated with overnight pitching changes and weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.
Stat king ColeComing off a phenomenal, out-of-nowhere finish to his 2023 season with the Kansas City Royals, left-hander Cole Ragans was understandably a popular breakthrough pick in fantasy baseball drafts this season.
Since the beginning of this past August, Ragans has scored 371 fantasy points, third most among all pitchers behind only Tarik Skubal (424) and Zack Wheeler (402), and 16th most among all players. The adjustments that Ragans made while working with Tread Athletics during the 2022-23 offseason resulted in a 4 mph bump in average fastball velocity and the Royals' minor league development system, which helped him hone a slider that has a 35.8% whiff rate since he joined the organization last June, have lent legitimacy to his statistical success.
Now Ragans, who has four quality starts, a 1.20 ERA and 35.3% strikeout rate in his past five outings, gets one of his stiffest matchup challenges all season, a road start against the vaunted Los Angeles Dodgers lineup. The Dodgers rank third in baseball with a 5.04 runs per game average, first in team wOBA (.335) and walk rate (10.1%), and their top three hitters have a collective four Most Valuable Player Awards and occupy three of the top 22 spots in terms of Wins Above Replacement this year.
As Ragans continues to establish himself as legitimate and sustainable long-term pitcher, his projection continues to swell, to the point that he's one of the best-projected starting pitchers for Friday despite the challenging matchup. Consider that against a league-average matchup, Ragans would be a top-three projected starter for the day, behind only Skubal and Ranger Suarez.
At this stage, Ragans is a matchup-proof starter, with his performance against top-10 offenses that have averaged 4.5-plus runs per game this season as compelling evidence. He's 4-for-6 in quality starts with a 4.06 ERA and 41 K's in 31 innings against them, the ERA mostly done in by a terrible April 20 outing against the Baltimore Orioles. About the worst that can be said for him on Friday is that the Royals haven't backed him with enough run support for him to win any of those six starts, which again could be the case against underrated Dodgers starter Gavin Stone, but remember, going from a win to a loss is merely a maximum four-point swing in ESPN standard formats.
Everything else you need to know for Friday The opener of the Pittsburgh Pirates-Colorado Rockies weekend series at Coors Field stands out as by far the day's best overall matchup for offense. Luis Ortiz, an injury fill-in who hasn't exceeded 58 pitches in a professional regular-season outing this season, should handle bulk innings for the Pirates, while Ryan Feltner, who has a 5.96 career ERA, starts for the Rockies, meaning a matchup of pitchers with sub-20% strikeout rates in the game's best hitting environment. Ezequiel Tovar, who typically bats second or third for the Rockies, has batted .328/.341/.598 with seven home runs in his past 28 games, 19 of which were on the road. He's available in more than 70% of ESPN leagues. If those two offenses don't score the day's top run total, the Arizona Diamondbacks might be it. While their entire weekend home series against the Chicago White Sox tilts in their favor, it's this game against pitch-to-contact righty Chris Flexen that most stands out from a hitting matchups standpoint. Eugenio Suarez has been one of the Diamondbacks' most successful hitters against lower-velocity (sub-92 mph) fastballs, Flexen's most-used pitch, batting .328 with eight homers and a .746 slugging percentage against them since the beginning of 2022. There are hints that the Miami Marlins will promote Max Meyer to make Friday's start, a rotational opening created by Ryan Weathers' injury, but whether it's Meyer or a fill-in like Shaun Anderson (also on the 40-man roster), this might still be an advantageous matchup for the hosting Washington Nationals. Meyer's hot start to the season in the majors was the source of much fantasy chatter, but since his April 15 demotion to Triple-A Jacksonville, he has a 6.75 ERA in eight starts, none of which featured greater than 74 pitches thrown and seven of which came on six days' rest. That the Marlins altered his routine diminishes the chances that he'll immediately excel upon his recall. Keep C.J. Abrams in there on Friday. San Diego Padres knuckleballer Matt Waldron is riding a streak of three quality starts, and he has a good chance at extending it to four in what's a favorable matchup at pitching-friendly Citi Field against the New York Mets. Citi Field has rated the game's second most pitching-friendly venue, behind only Seattle's T-Mobile Park, for both 2024 alone and the past three seasons combined, per Statcast. The pitching matchup in Baltimore's Camden Yards, between the visiting Philadelphia Phillies' Ranger Suarez, and home-team Baltimore Orioles' Kyle Bradish, should be a more compelling one than you might think, looking at the two teams' offensive performances for the year. Bradish stands out in particular, having tossed six shutout innings of one-hit, no-walk, nine-strikeout baseball in his most recent outing, one that was pushed back after the team raised workload concerns about him. Both his sinker and slider are performing at least as good as -- and arguably better than -- they did during his breakthrough 2023, and the Phillies' lineup isn't quite as scary as it was a few weeks back before Trea Turner and J.T. Realmuto got hurt.It's never too late to start a free fantasy baseball league. Leagues drafted this week will start scoring fresh the following Monday. Come and join the fun!
Starting pitcher rankings for Friday Reliever reportTo get the latest information on each team's bullpen hierarchy, as well as which pitchers might be facing a bit of fatigue and who might be the most likely suspects to vulture a save or pick up a surprise hold in their stead, check out the latest Closer Chart, which will be updated every morning.
Hitting reportPlan ahead in fantasy baseball with help from our Forecaster projections. Each day, we will provide an updated preview of the next 10 days for every team, projecting the matchup quality for hitters (overall and by handedness) as well as for base stealers.
Best sub-50% rostered hitters for FridayBest and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more.
Charlie Blackmon (COL, RF -- 10%) vs. Luis Ortiz Oneil Cruz (PIT, SS -- 50%) at Ryan Feltner Ke'Bryan Hayes (PIT, 3B -- 36%) at Feltner Edward Olivares (PIT, LF -- 1%) at Feltner Anthony Rizzo (NYY, 1B -- 23%) at Cooper Criswell Joc Pederson (ARI, LF -- 6%) vs. Chris Flexen Gavin Sheets (CHW, RF -- 7%) at Ryne Nelson Matt Chapman (SF, 3B -- 41%) vs. Tyler Anderson Ezequiel Tovar (COL, SS -- 30%) vs. Ortiz Trent Grisham (NYY, CF -- 0%) at Criswell Worst over-50% rostered hitters for Friday Ryan Jeffers (MIN, C -- 68%) at Jared Jones Brice Turang (MIL, 2B -- 68%) at Tarik Skubal Cal Raleigh (SEA, C -- 68%) at Cole Ragans Willy Adames (MIL, SS -- 84%) at Skubal Anthony Volpe (NYY, SS -- 89%) vs. Tyler Glasnow Gabriel Moreno (ARI, C -- 54%) at Adam Mazur Gleyber Torres (NYY, 2B -- 62%) vs. Glasnow Brent Rooker (OAK, RF -- 53%) vs. Bowden Francis Teoscar Hernandez (LAD, RF -- 89%) at Luis Gil Jordan Westburg (BAL, 2B -- 85%) at Zack Littell
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