Fantasy baseball pitcher rankings, lineup advice for Friday's MLB games
Everything you need to know to place your MLB bets and set your fantasy baseball lineups for Friday, May 16.
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Look for our fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings, hitter upgrades and downgrades daily to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions and for MLB betting tips. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET, and fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.
Note: This file will be updated with any overnight pitching changes or weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.
Déjà two
All eyes were on Pittsburgh Pirates rookie, and top-pitching-prospect-at-the-time, Paul Skenes' major league debut last Saturday. Though his run-prevention results (four innings, three runs allowed) were unimpressive, his raw stuff was every bit as tantalizing as advertised. He averaged 100.1 mph with his fastball, he got 14 total swings and misses and he struck out seven Chicago Cubs.
Skenes now faces the very same foe in start No. 2, the Cubs, but this time at Chicago's Wrigley Field, which has similar park factors to the Pirates' home, PNC Park, other than it being much more homer-friendly for righty hitters between the two. With the Cubs having registered four of their six hits across their final six at-bats against Skenes in his debut, one must be wondering whether their newfound familiarity with his stuff will prove a disadvantage for the right-hander?
There's no definitive answer to the question about all pitchers, regardless of level of experience, in back-to-back matchups against the same opponent in close proximity, as my past research supported pitchers possessing an advantage in the rematch across one time span, but an updated analysis then strongly favored hitters.
What about pitchers only getting their feet wet in the big leagues?
Across the 21st century, 43 pitchers made their first two big-league starts against the same opponent, with those starts happening within a week's time span of one another. That group had relatively similar numbers in those starts:
First start: 3.68 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 17.2 K%, 5.57 IP/GS, 9.3 FPTS/GS
Second start: 3.74 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 18.1 K%, 5.31 IP/GS, 8.9 FPTS/GS
If we narrow the scope to merely highly regarded pitching prospects at the time -- generally those who graced a top-100 industry list for the season in question -- then the sample shrinks to 17 pitchers but there's a clear pitching advantage in a rematch:
First start: 3.97 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 19.0 K%, 5.61 IP/GS, 9.3 FPTS/GS
Second start: 1.98 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 17.5 K%, 6.14 IP/GS, 14.5 FPTS/GS
Again, a 17-player sample across a near-quarter century cannot provide the definitive answer, but it has always been my belief that a top pitching prospect is most likely to deliver his best rookie-year performances in closest proximity to his debut. Any adjustment period for Skenes should probably arrive closer to late summer, and these next 5-8 starts of his could ultimately be his best in 2024.
The Cubs represents a middling matchup for pitchers, hence Skenes' projection is modest, but I'll take the over on his 7.82 fantasy points.
Everything else you need to know for Friday
The two New York teams face their respective leagues' clear worst teams, and both the Yankees and Mets will start pitchers who are widely available in ESPN leagues. For the Yankees,
Nestor Cortes (45.0% rostered) will face the Chicago White Sox at home, where he has been historically much better than on the road. Since the beginning of 2022, he has a 2.52 ERA, 0.87 WHIP, 53.8% quality start and 26.2% strikeout rates in 26 starts at Yankee Stadium. For the Mets,
Christian Scott (17.0%) draws a road assignment at pitching-friendly Miami's loanDepot Park, with the combination of opponent and park factor giving him an excellent chance at extending his career-opening streak of two quality starts.
The Oakland Athletics have been one of the hottest-hitting teams this month, though a good chunk of that can be attributed to their 20-run, May 4 outburst against the Miami Marlins and left-handed starter Trevor Rogers. On Friday,
Cole Ragans and the Kansas City Royals should fare far, far better, accounting both for his raw talent but also the fluky, small sample-driven nature of the Athletics' recent numbers against lefties. Ask yourself: Do you believe more in the .360-plus wOBAs that J.D. Davis, Tyler Nevin, Esteury Ruiz and Abraham Toro have against lefties this year, or the more modest splits they have against that side in their careers (Nevin's .356 is best amongst that quartet, albeit across only 443 plate appearances)? I'm bullish on Ragans relative to his projection.
Hunter Brown returns to the Houston Astros' rotation after a one-outing shift to the bullpen, and his home assignment against the Milwaukee Brewers could be a make-or-break for his role, what with Jose Urquidy on a minor league rehabilitation assignment. Brown's shaky control and difficulty against same-handed hitters -- they're hitting .390/.471/.559 against him this year -- make him one of the stronger matchup opportunities for hitters, among which William Contreras, one of the Brewers' best fastball and cutter hitters, stands out.
Detroit Tigers hitters stand out against the Arizona Diamondbacks' Ryne Nelson, who has a 5.31 ERA and only eight quality starts in 33 tries between this and last season. Not one Tigers hitter is rostered in more than three-quarters of ESPN leagues, with leadoff man
Riley Greene (74.1%) the only one over 50%. Heart-of-the-order hitters Kerry Carpenter and Spencer Torkelson have improved their play of late and are worth the plug-in for this matchup.
It's not too late to start a free fantasy baseball league. Leagues drafted this week will start scoring fresh the following Monday. Come and join the fun!
Starting pitcher rankings for Friday
Reliever report
To get the latest information on each team's bullpen hierarchy, as well as which pitchers might be facing a bit of fatigue and who might be the most likely suspects to vulture a save or pick up a surprise hold in their stead, check out the latest Closer Chart, which will be updated every morning.
Hitting report
Plan ahead in fantasy baseball with help from our Forecaster projections. Each day, we will provide an updated preview of the next 10 days for every team, projecting the matchup quality for hitters (overall and by handedness) as well as for base stealers.
Best Sub-50% rostered hitters for Friday
Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more.
Maikel Garcia (KC, 3B -- 17%) vs. Alex Wood
Riley Greene (DET, CF -- 31%) at Ryne Nelson
Nathaniel Lowe (TEX, 1B -- 20%) vs. Tyler Anderson
Wenceel Perez (DET, 2B -- 0%) at Nelson
Lars Nootbaar (STL, CF -- 21%) vs. Brayan Bello
Alex Verdugo (NYY, RF -- 19%) vs. Mike Clevinger
Danny Jansen (TOR, C -- 3%) vs. Tyler Alexander
Kerry Carpenter (DET, RF -- 15%) at Nelson
Ryan O'Hearn (BAL, 1B -- 20%) vs. Bryce Miller
Mark Canha (DET, LF -- 11%) at Nelson
Worst Over-50% rostered hitters for Friday
Michael Busch (CHC, 3B -- 65%) vs. Paul Skenes
Ryan McMahon (COL, 3B -- 52%) at Kyle Harrison
Gabriel Moreno (ARI, C -- 73%) vs. Tarik Skubal
Colton Cowser (BAL, RF -- 65%) vs. Miller
Cal Raleigh (SEA, C -- 72%) at John Means
Jordan Westburg (BAL, 2B -- 79%) vs. Miller
Jeff McNeil (NYM, 2B -- 62%) at Jesus Luzardo
Ian Happ (CHC, LF -- 77%) vs. Skenes
Luis Campusano (SD, C -- 52%) at Max Fried
Keibert Ruiz (WSH, C -- 54%) at Zack Wheeler
