Once the exit poll is released, at 10pm, we incorporate the seat estimates into our model—narrowing the range of possible.For the full forecast details, please read our latest article here.
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Look for our fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings, hitter upgrades and downgrades daily to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions and for MLB betting tips. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET, and fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.
Note: This file will be updated with any overnight pitching changes or weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.
Baz is Back in TownEarlier this week, the Tampa Bay Rays traded SP Aaron Civale to the Milwaukee Brewers in exchange for 20-year-old shortstop Gregory Barrios. Civale's spot in the rotation will be filled by SP Shane Baz.
Baz had Tommy John surgery in September 2022. He didn't pitch at all in 2023. Baz began a rehab assignment with Triple-A Durham in early May. Once the rehab expired, the Rays opted to leave Baz with the Bulls. He made 10 starts, throwing 39 1/3 innings with a 4.12 ERA and 1.59 WHIP. However, over his last four outings, Baz posted a 1.89 ERA and 1.32 WHIP with 31 strikeouts in 19 innings.
Trading Civale was not necessarily a sign the Rays are throwing in the towel this season. They're currently sixth in the race for the three AL Wild Card spots, five games behind the Royals for the final berth. A lot must go right for the Rays to return to the playoffs, but they're within striking distance. On the other hand, the Rays may continue to move starting pitching, with Zach Eflin, Zack Littell and Ryan Pepiot potentially on the block.
Playoff aspirations aside, Baz will likely have his workload tempered over the second half. There are around 13 weeks left in the season. One start a week would add 65-75 innings to Baz's ledger, leaving him with 110, plus or minus a handful. This seems reasonable and sets Baz up to pitch next season with no restrictions.
The typical pattern during recovery from Tommy John surgery is velocity returns relatively quickly, but command and control may lag. When Baz embarked on his rehab, his velocity was down a couple of ticks while his command and control was poor. However, his velocity ticked up lately, and he's walked a palatable eight in 19 innings, without yielding a home run.
Currently, Baz is rostered in only 12.1% of ESPN leagues. It may swell a bit now that he's back, but he'll likely be in the streaming bucket for the second half. His Friday start in Arlington isn't an ideal spot for his 2024 MLB debut, but the Rangers offense has scored the 10th fewest runs in MLB since June 1. The catch is they don't strike out much, and since Baz likely won't pitch past the fifth inning, his fantasy production will be tempered.
Everything else you need to know for Friday After a holiday slate featuring mostly matinees, the only Friday afternoon game is the standard Wrigley Field affair when the Chicago Cubs are home for the weekend. Shockingly, Cubs SP Justin Steele will be looking for his first win this season as he's 0-3 in 12 outings, despite a 3.20 ERA and 1.07 WHIP over 70 1/3 innings. Steele will be opposed by Los Angeles Angels SP Griffin Canning. Canning is in a rut, posting a 4.88 ERA and 1.21 WHIP over his last four starts, with only 16 punchouts in 24 frames. The top-ranked streaming candidate is Detroit Tigers SP Reese Olson (17.6% rostered in ESPN leagues). The Tigers have a three-game set facing the Cincinnati Reds in the Great American Ballpark. The road affair renders a significant park downgrade for Olson, though even at home, the Reds sport a below average offense with an above average strikeout rate. Olson has posted three consecutive quality starts, with a sparkling 1.96 ERA and ,87 WHIP over those 18 1/3 stanzas, supported by 20 strikeouts with only three free passes. Ranked just below Olson is Baltimore Orioles SP Albert Suarez (4.2% rostered). The Orioles start a weekend series out west against the Oakland Athletics. Suarez's ranking is more about the matchup than his ability, though he's coming off his best effort of the season where he blanked the Texas Rangers over six stanzas, albeit with only two strikeouts. Still, facing the offense averaging the second fewest runs per game at home since June 1 merits consideration. Next up is Chicago White Sox rookie SP Drew Thorpe (5.8% rostered). This is another option fueled by the matchup with the White Sox spending the weekend in South Beach. To be fair, Thorpe has recorded consecutive quality starts, but he rung up only nine batters while walking five over those dozen frames. However, the Miami Marlins have scored the fewest runs per game in the league over the last month. New York Mets SP Luis Severino registered a 3.24 ERA and 1.14 WHIP in June. He tossed at least six innings in each outing. In three, he yielded one or fewer runs, but he gave up 10 total runs in the other pair. Over the entire month, Severino only fanned 20 in 33 1/3 innings, and that includes a 10-strikeout gem in Wrigley Field two starts ago. On Friday, Severino is in a good spot to rack up some strikeouts in the Steel City. The Pittsburgh Pirates are the opposition and have fanned the fourth most in the league facing right-handed pitching.It's never too late to start a free fantasy baseball league. Leagues drafted this week will start scoring fresh the following Monday. Come and join the fun!
Starting pitcher rankings for Friday Reliever reportTo get the latest information on each team's bullpen hierarchy, as well as which pitchers might be facing a bit of fatigue and who might be the most likely suspects to vulture a save or pick up a surprise hold in their stead, check out the latest Closer Chart, which will be updated every morning.
Hitting reportPlan ahead in fantasy baseball with help from our Forecaster projections. Each day, we will provide an updated preview of the next 10 days for every team, projecting the matchup quality for hitters (overall and by handedness) as well as for base stealers.
Best sub-50% rostered hitters for FridayBest and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing and lots more.
Michael Busch (CHC, 3B -- 18%) vs. Griffin Canning Oneil Cruz (PIT, SS -- 47%) vs. Luis Severino Alec Burleson (STL, LF -- 31%) at Patrick Corbin Hunter Renfroe (KC, RF -- 3%) at Kyle Freeland Masyn Winn (STL, SS -- 12%) at Corbin Andrew Benintendi (CHW, LF -- 10%) at Roddery Munoz Ryan Mountcastle (BAL, 1B -- 49%) at Hogan Harris Brendan Rodgers (COL, 2B -- 4%) vs. Cole Ragans Dylan Carlson (STL, CF -- 0%) at Corbin Brendan Donovan (STL, 2B -- 45%) at Corbin Worst over-50% rostered hitters for Friday Jeremy Pena (HOU, SS -- 50%) at Pablo Lopez Anthony Volpe (NYY, SS -- 83%) vs. Tanner Houck Francisco Alvarez (NYM, C -- 55%) at Paul Skenes Bo Bichette (TOR, SS -- 76%) at Luis Castillo Cal Raleigh (SEA, C -- 72%) vs. Kevin Gausman Jeff McNeil (NYM, 2B -- 50%) at Skenes Jarren Duran (BOS, CF -- 92%) at Nestor Cortes George Springer (TOR, RF -- 72%) at Castillo Yainer Diaz (HOU, C -- 87%) at Lopez Gabriel Moreno (ARI, C -- 50%) at Randy Vasquez
